Very excited to release this paper today. By using a staggered roll-out of heat pumps in the UK, we find that: 1. Heat pumps reduce households’ total energy use by a whopping 40%, and carbon emissions by 36%, evidencing the real-world impact of their superior efficiency over gas boilers.

Do you take a look at the grid efficiencies, T&D losses, heat rates, etc?

I do love our electric heat pump. With our solar panels, it has a double benefit -- "free" electricity (we had to pay for the panels, of course) to power it, and no more $125/month propane bill. Propane is just used for our tankless water heater now (a minimal amount).

My new place in SD got a tiny heat pump HVAC mini-split when I moved in two years ago. The house has a small number of solar panels. Electricity has been nearly free for the last two years. I'm running AC today in the heat. I run heat a bit in the winter. The efficiency is working.

2. Time-of-use pricing for heat pumps is very effective at shifting demand, halving consumption during the evening peak and reducing annual consumer bills by 18% compared to standard tariff.

how do these compare with engineering estimates?

I have been waffling on this and it seems like a great piece of info!!! Not just different energy, much LESS energy