BLUE
Login
PostsUsersHashtags
STspc-storms.nws-bot.us

SPC Oct 15, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook ⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️ Additional Details Here.

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Models suggest that initially consolidated large-scale mid-level troughing, across the Pacific coast through the Rockies at the outset of the period, will become increasingly split while continuing inland. One notable embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue pivoting across and north/northeast of the Canadian Prairies, while a similar trailing perturbation amplifies southeastward, near/east of the Sierra Nevada through southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. It still appears that the primary and secondary surface cyclogenesis will accompany the lead impulse into the higher latitudes of interior Canada. The trailing cold front may surge east of the Canadian Prairies through much of northwestern Ontario by late Thursday night, while stalling northwest of the upper Great Lakes region through the northern Great Plains Red River Valley, and the higher terrain of southern Wyoming/northern Colorado into the southern Great Basin. Downstream, beneath building mid-level ridging to the west of confluent mid-level troughing east of the Appalachians into the western Atlantic, the center of expansive cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained over the Ohio Valley/central Appalachians vicinity. This ridging appears likely to maintain a considerable stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and northern Gulf of Mexico. ...Pacific coast into Great Plains... It still appears that relatively warm layers aloft and the lack of sufficient low-level moisture return will preclude an appreciable risk for thunderstorm activity near the lingering modestly deep surface troughing/cold front across the northern Great Plains into Front Range vicinity. However, large-scale forcing for ascent and cooling aloft probably will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support scattered areas of weak thunderstorm activity from portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. ..Kerr.. 10/15/2024
Day 3 Outlook Image
0
STspc-storms.nws-bot.us

SPC Oct 15, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook ⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️ Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Four Corners States... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon, downstream of a weak mid-level low drifting southeast from the Lower CO Valley across AZ. Weak deep-layer shear will limit severe-storm potential. ...Southern Great Lakes to the central Appalachians... A broad and amplified mid-level trough will pivot southward across the East. A swath of cold 500-mb temperatures around -30 C will accompany this trough, supporting steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. With a shallow tropopause and meager surface-based buoyancy, low-topped showers will abound. The deepest of these should produce sporadic lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon. Weak lower-level winds will preclude organized cells. ...FL to far southeast LA... Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are most probable across the southern tip of the peninsula where low-level moisture will be sufficient for deep convection. Modest deep-layer shear and weak mid-level lapse rates should mitigate a severe risk. Farther north, pockets of low-level convergence along a quasi-stationary front over the northeast Gulf and across the north FL Peninsula may be sufficient for around a 10-percent thunderstorm probability during the late afternoon. This front will accelerate south tonight, but any convection along it should remain offshore. ..Grams/Bentley.. 10/15/2024
Day 1 Outlook Image
0
WP2facedjanus7927.bsky.social

If you would instead like to hiss and spit at me, you are proving my prior belief that people love to use Appalachians and Natives as props to shame other white people but do not give a single fuck about us and what we want right.

1
Ppandaramble.bsky.social

The one is a reality show about celebrities competing in various challenges and the other is them trekking through Appalachians, more educational.

0
STspc-storms.nws-bot.us

SPC Oct 14, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook ⛈️NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST🌪️ Additional Details Here.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep, positively tilted upper-level trough will remain in place over the central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday, with an embedded shortwave trough forecast to dig southeastward from the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Southeast and Mid Atlantic by Tuesday night. Across the West, a weak midlevel cyclone over parts of Arizona is forecast to move little through the period, while a deeper mid/upper-level trough and embedded shortwaves begin to affect the Pacific Northwest. Low-level moisture and instability will generally be limited across the CONUS, with an expansive surface ridge keeping richer moisture confined to parts of the immediate Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula. A southward-moving cold front will impinge upon the richer moisture through the day, but with stronger large-scale ascent displaced well to the north, thunderstorm potential along the front appears relatively limited. A storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the north-central FL Peninsula (especially in close proximity to the east and west coasts), and also across extreme southeast LA, but coverage is expected to remain quite isolated at best. Isolated storms will also be possible across parts of the FL Keys and far southern peninsula, where deeper tropical moisture will be in place. Some instability will spread southward along the TX Gulf Coast, and potentially inland into south-central TX, but confidence in storm development across this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains low. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Four Corners region, near and northeast of the midlevel cyclone over Arizona. Cold midlevel temperatures (less than -10C at 700 mb) will support convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes in the vicinity of southern Lake Michigan, Lake Erie, and parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Guidance currently suggests that thunderstorm potential associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will largely remain offshore, though very isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out near northwest WA by the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 10/14/2024
Day 2 Outlook Image
0
cloudyobsession.com

You'll have to deal with my accent mishmash because there's a good amount of Foothills of the Appalachians but it's also roughly 30-40% Midwest Lite The joy of growing up all over the place, no one has any clue where I'm from X3;;

1
STspc-storms.nws-bot.us

SPC Oct 13, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook ⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY🌪️ Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this evening, from Pennsylvania southward to the Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage should be the main threat. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made. The 5% wind/Marginal risk area was expanded slightly across portions of central to northeast PA where morning cloud cover has cleared and allowed for stronger daytime heating/destabilization (denoted by temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s). These observations appear to be well assimilated into recent HRRR/RRFS runs, which have trended towards a slightly stronger UH/convective signal compared to early-morning solutions. The risk lines have been adjusted to account for these recent trends. ..Moore.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Central/Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley... Water vapor loop shows a fast-moving and deepening shortwave trough over WI. This feature will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes region through the day, with fast flow aloft extending eastward across the central Appalachians. A surface low currently over northern OH will track eastward across PA along a warm front, while an associated cold front sweeps southeastward across OH/WV/KY/TN. Low-level moisture is quite limited ahead of this system, which will limit coverage and overall intensity of convection. However, over half of morning CAM solutions suggest thunderstorm development along the front this afternoon and evening, where winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds. The MRGL risk area has been extended northeastward into parts of central/northeast PA, ahead of the surface low and along the warm front. CAPE will be very weak in this area, but forecast soundings and some CAM guidance suggest the potential for 1 or 2 rotating storms capable of gusty wind or perhaps a brief spin-up around peak heating.
Day 1 Outlook Image
0
STspc-storms.nws-bot.us

SPC Oct 13, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook ⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY🌪️ Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this evening, from Pennsylvania southward to the Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage should be the main threat. ...Central/Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley... Water vapor loop shows a fast-moving and deepening shortwave trough over WI. This feature will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes region through the day, with fast flow aloft extending eastward across the central Appalachians. A surface low currently over northern OH will track eastward across PA along a warm front, while an associated cold front sweeps southeastward across OH/WV/KY/TN. Low-level moisture is quite limited ahead of this system, which will limit coverage and overall intensity of convection. However, over half of morning CAM solutions suggest thunderstorm development along the front this afternoon and evening, where winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds. The MRGL risk area has been extended northeastward into parts of central/northeast PA, ahead of the surface low and along the warm front. CAPE will be very weak in this area, but forecast soundings and some CAM guidance suggest the potential for 1 or 2 rotating storms capable of gusty wind or perhaps a brief spin-up around peak heating. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/13/2024
Day 1 Outlook Image
0
LMcopacetic-vibe.bsky.social

⚠️ Details in ALT Text ⚠️ Pay attention to local meteorologists and reliable weather apps if you live in a colored area on the top map. Stay updated on the weather in your area and be prepared with a plan for severe weather.  #WeatherAwareDay#weather#wx#SPC#WeatherAware#SevereWeather

Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this evening, across parts of the central/southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail should be the main threats. Please stay weather aware. #WeatherAwareDay #weather #wx #SPC #SevereWeather   Strong Storm Impacting Alaska; Heavy Rain Continues in Southeast Florida A strong storm will continue to bring impacts to Alaska, including moderate to heavy rain from the north Gulf coast into the Panhandle, heavy snowfall along the coastal mountains and the Interior, and strong winds along the coast. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will continue in southeast Florida and the Keys. Strong thunderstorms are possible in the central Appalachians.
1
STspc-storms.nws-bot.us

SPC Oct 13, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook ⛈️THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY🌪️ Additional Details Here.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this evening, across parts of the central/southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail should be the main threats. ...Central/Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley... Ongoing elevated thunderstorms across northeast OH and western PA should continue eastward this morning in tandem with an enhanced west-southwesterly low-level jet. This activity is expected to outpace low-level moisture return and related destabilization today, and eventually weaken. But in the short term, small hail remains possible. Meanwhile, a vigorous shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will dig southeastward through the base of a large-scale mid/upper trough, and yield amplification of this trough southward across the Great Lakes through Monday morning. Ascent preceding this shortwave trough will overspread parts of the central/southern Appalachians into the TN Valley, mainly during the evening and overnight. A leading and weaker mid-level perturbation will encourage the primary surface low to develop eastward across PA this afternoon through early evening. A surface cold front will extend southwest of this low into the TN Valley. Convective development along the front appears likely to be delayed until early evening, as the strengthening large-scale ascent aids in increasing low-level convergence along the front amid generally veered flow within the warm sector. Surface dew points should largely range from the mid 50s in WV to a narrow corridor of low 60s in TN, yielding a plume of MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg amid initially steep mid-level lapse rates. Recent guidance still differs regarding storm coverage along/ahead of the cold front this evening, from almost none to scattered. This is perhaps in response to the ascent with the shortwave trough strengthening after peak diurnal heating. The strongest 700 mb westerlies (around 40-55 kt) should be confined to mainly northeast of the TN Valley. Forecast hodographs above this level appear small, owing to weakening winds with height as fast mid/upper flow lags to the north-northwest. This suggests supercell structures may struggle to develop/be sustained. But the strong 700 mb flow could support localized damaging winds in any multicell clusters that can form. Farther southwest, somewhat greater buoyancy could foster small to marginally severe hail as well. The overall severe threat appears likely to remain rather isolated, and no changes have been made to the Marginal Risk with this update. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/13/2024
Day 1 Outlook Image
0
HomePopularExplore